What's Behind Trump's Tough Stance on India? A Deep Dive into US-India Relations

US Imposes Tariffs on India: A Shift in Relations

Last week, President Donald Trump enacted a significant 25% tariff on imports from India, alongside an undisclosed penalty for the nation’s ongoing purchases of Russian oil and military supplies. This decision has triggered a downturn in India's financial markets. Following this announcement, Trump made a controversial statement indicating he was indifferent to the potential collapse of India's economy. This abrupt shift in Trump's attitude has left New Delhi scrambling for answers, especially considering that just a few months prior, he had recognized India as a crucial strategic ally. In a meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both leaders had aimed to elevate their bilateral trade from $129 billion to $500 billion by 2030. Notably, India had previously felt relatively unconcerned about Trump's re-election, believing that his first term had been beneficial for their relationship.

Several factors appear to have influenced Trump's hardened position towards India. Firstly, New Delhi's continued reliance on Russian oil and military equipment has drawn the ire of the US-led Western coalition. This is perceived as undermining sanctions imposed on Russia due to its actions in Ukraine. Trump seems to have made India's dealings with Russia a focal point of his policy, particularly after feeling let down by Putin regarding ceasefire negotiations. As tensions escalate between the West and Russia, Trump appears to be signaling that India may face repercussions if it does not align with Western interests.

Since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, India's imports of Russian oil have surged, now accounting for over a third of its total oil imports, a stark increase from less than 1% prior to the war. Initially, India faced significant pressure to curtail its economic ties with Russia, but as the war progressed, local media began framing the narrative differently. It was suggested that India's acquisition of cheaper Russian oil—thanks to price caps imposed by the EU and G7—was stabilizing global oil prices. However, Trump's inability to deliver on his campaign promise of achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine has led to growing frustration over India's ongoing imports from Russia.

Secondly, despite multiple discussions since the February meeting between Trump and Modi, a trade agreement between the US and India remains elusive. The US is pushing for India to open its sensitive agricultural and dairy sectors to American imports, as well as to ease regulations on data storage and digital trade—issues that continue to be contentious. Unfortunately, India currently lacks the expertise in global affairs necessary to navigate these complex negotiations effectively, resulting in a bureaucratic approach that has led to failures across various fronts.

Lastly, a significant factor may be India's reluctance to acknowledge Trump's role in facilitating a ceasefire following a military confrontation with Pakistan. Trump has frequently praised Pakistan's leadership and claimed credit for the truce, suggesting he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. However, Indian officials have consistently denied him this recognition, likely contributing to his displeasure.

The strategic partnership between India and the US has been nurtured over the past 25 years, with contributions from leaders of both nations, including Trump during his initial term. In recent years, both countries have embraced the label of 'engaged democracies,' moving away from the Cold War-era characterization of 'estranged democracies.' The relationship peaked with the 2008 civil nuclear agreement signed during the UPA-I administration. As trust has grown, India has increasingly turned to the US for defense procurement.

Now, with an unpredictable and transactional Trump at the helm, India finds itself in a precarious position. Due to its unclear foreign policy direction, India appears to have limited options as it navigates this challenging landscape.